分析报告英文版

一篇评论性的分析报告：Risk of explosive surge in soyabean prices as US inventories dwindle Soyabean prices risk an explosive surge this summer as US stocks could be virtually exhausted before the arrival of the new crop in the autumn, due to production problems in Latin America and strong demand from China.The price of soyabeans in Chicago has surged 40 per cent since the start of March, with the benchmark CBOT July contract pushing above the key $12 a bushel to an eight-month high of $12.27 a bushel this week.“The market is on a reconnaissance mission,” said Greg Wagner, senior analyst at Ag Resource in Chicago. “We are seeing a classic demand rationing rally but without any evidence that prices are managing to ration demand.”The US Department of Agriculture forecast the country's soya stocks would drop to 130m bushels at the end of the current 2008/09 season, but private sector analysts such as Informa Economics, the US-based consultancy, warn that a decline below the psychologically significant level of 100m bushels appears increasingly likely.The USDA projection means stocks will shrink to 4.3 per cent of annual consumption, the lowest level for more than 40 years, and suggests any further decline would make the supply situation precariously tight.But with US export sales already above the US government's 2008/09 target of 1,240m bushels, with 14 weeks of the current season still left, Mr Wagner said there was a clear risk of prices spiking higher as the stock situation was tighter than last year when soyabean prices hit a record $16.63 a bushel in July.However, Anne Frick, senior oilseeds analyst at Bache Commodities, says soyabean prices could be “vulnerable to a setback” as a small increase in supply could reverse the market's psychology.Ms Frick says extra supplies could emerge this year if China delayed buying until the new US crop was available, from October- November, or if Latin American producers step up sales to take advantage of the current price premium.She also pointed out that the increase in China's bean reserves represents a transfer rather than a depletion of available global stocks.